This is a brief overview of a trail that points to the greater Batavia / Zenith Seamount areas as the terminal location for MH370. Only a small part of two years of analysis is included.
This is also part of the preparation for a privately funded effort to determine the plane’s exact location. The upcoming private effort will not attempt to recover the plane if it is found. That will be left to next of kin and governments with legal authority to make such decisions.
The author does not speculate in any of his writings about conditions on the plane that caused or led to this tragedy. That sort of speculation is mostly unknowable with the scant amount of data available to us: there was no mayday, no data dump as the plane hit the ocean surface. Just a few pings that are themselves suspect in some ways. And nothing in the private lives of those on the plane has emerged as contributory in any way. It doesn’t mean those things don’t exist. It just means if they do we don’t know about them yet and shouldn’t complicate things with unfounded speculation.
There are 8 visuals in this summary. They paint vignettes of key dates and items that appear linked, if softly. They are just crumbs; bits of information that may help us. This does not point to an exact location, but it’s pretty close, even for horseshoes.
For those who might wonder, the single piece of data that compelled me to consider alternatives to the “south of Broken Ridge” theory is the fact that if the time interval and flight path obtained by RMAF radar as the plane flew back across the Malay Peninsula and NW into the Andaman Sea are correct, its total distance during the hours that remained are about half of the official estimate. The plane flew somewhere between 300 and 350 kph according to RMAF; much less than that required to fly all the way to Broken Ridge and beyond. (Note 11/24/2016: I am not the only one who initially determined that MH370 flew in the 300 – 350 kph range, but I lost my original work about a year ago and my estimates now are more typical (860 kph), a bit faster than even Inmarsat’s estimate of 829 kph. Either way, I strongly suspect the plane flew in ovals, and I suspect @SaucySailoress really saw it West of her position near the Andaman Sea.)
The flaperon was, for me, confirmation that the Exmouth, Zenith, Batavia areas were close to the mark. Drift in that part of that ocean has a long history of moving due west, especially if it is far enough from Western Australia to be free of the Leeuwin Currents. The final arc is just west of those currents. The following charts are all clickable if you want a closer look. Feedback is always welcome via Twitter.